- GBP: Sterling experienced a notable rally yesterday, driven by strong inflation and employment data, which bolstered expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) might maintain its current interest rate of 5% in its September meeting. These data points suggest a resilient UK economy, which could justify the BoE’s decision to hold rates steady to curb inflationary pressures. Today’s PMI data will be critical; if the figures exceed expectations, it would likely strengthen the case for maintaining the 5% rate, supporting further gains in the pound.
- EUR: The Euro has been relatively stable, as the European Central Bank (ECB) has not committed to a clear direction for interest rates. However, comments from ECB policymaker Olli Rehn hint at a potential rate cut in September, primarily due to ongoing economic weakness in the Eurozone. Market sentiment currently reflects a high probability (nearly 90%) of a 25-basis point cut. If this cut occurs, it could exert downward pressure on the Euro, though the extent of this may depend on the broader economic outlook and any offsetting positive data.
- USD: The USD saw a modest increase yesterday, but it remains near seven-month lows. This is largely due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, as reflected in the minutes from its last meeting and revised payroll data, both of which point toward a possible rate cut in September. Some analysts, anticipate continued USD weakness, influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including slower economic growth and potential monetary easing by the Fed.