- GBP: This morning, the British pound is weakening following the release of the UK’s July inflation report, which showed lower-than-expected figures across the board. Headline CPI rose to 2.2%, but not as much as anticipated. The most notable change was a significant drop in services inflation, which fell from 5.7% to 5.2% (below the consensus of 5.5% and the Bank of England’s forecast of 5.6%). Core inflation also slowed notably, decreasing from 3.5% to 3.3%. It’s uncertain whether this will influence the Bank of England’s policy decisions.
- EUR: The Euro has been volatile amid ongoing economic challenges in the EU, including rising inflation and energy price shocks. The Eurozone’s economy remains fragile, with growing disparities among member states and a focus on balancing growth with stability. The European Central Bank is closely monitoring these developments to manage risks. Despite the disappointing ZEW survey for Germany yesterday, the euro wasn’t significantly impacted, suggesting that the weak activity in the Eurozone may already be priced in. Persistent inflation in the Eurozone suggests that the market is not expecting more than a 75 basis point rate cut from the ECB by year-end, and even that may be too optimistic given recent data.
- USD: Meanwhile, the US dollar has been gaining strength against major currencies like the Japanese Yen and the Euro, following a period of market turbulence driven by weaker US job data and global equity fluctuations. Today’s release of the US Consumer Price Index could introduce more volatility.